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Quantitative Analysis Series

Every Metric You Must Know

Don't trust the screenshot. Trust the math. A deep dive into Drawdown, Sharpe, and Profit Factor.

Backtest Metrics

Beginners look at "Total Net Profit". Professionals look at "Max Drawdown" and "Sharpe Ratio". In the world of algorithmic trading, profit is meaningless without context of the risk taken to achieve it.

1. Max Drawdown (MDD)

The maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained. It measures the "pain" you must endure.

Meaning:

If your algo has a 20% MDD, it means at some point, your account balance dipped 20% from its highest point. If you can't stomach a 20% drop, you will turn off the bot right at the bottom.

2. Sharpe Ratio

Calculates risk-adjusted return. Ideally, you want returns higher than the risk-free rate (like an FD), with minimal volatility.

Formula: (Rn - Rf) / σp
  • > 1.0: Acceptable
  • > 2.0: Very Good
  • > 3.0: Excellent (Institutional Grade)

3. Profit Factor

Probably the simplest metric. It is the ratio of Gross Profit to Gross Loss.

Example:

Gross Wins: ₹1,00,000 | Gross Losses: ₹50,000

Profit Factor = 2.0

A PF below 1.5 is often considered unstable for automated systems.

4. Win Rate vs Risk:Reward

The holy grail is NOT a 90% Win Rate. It's the balance between how often you win and how much you win when you do.

High Win Rate Strategy

Quick Scalping

Win Rate: 70%
Risk:Reward: 1:0.8

Trend Following

Positional

Win Rate: 40%
Risk:Reward: 1:3

💡 Both strategies make money. One relies on accuracy, the other on huge winners.

5. CAGR

Compound Annual Growth Rate. The mean annual growth rate of an investment over a specified period of time longer than one year.

It smooths out the volatility of returns to give you a single annual figure.

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